This paper utilizes an early warning system in order to measure the likelihood of a financial crisis in an emerging market economy. We introduce a methodology, where we can both obtain a likelihood series and analyze the time-varying effects of several macroeconomic variables on this likelihood....

The poor performance of sticky-price models with rational expectations in explaining the inflationary inertia in the US economy constitutes the basis for sticky-price models of near-rational expectations in the recent literature. However, previous studies on inflationary inertia in Turkey not...