We develop a simple model with technical and fundamental traders to explain the cyclical motion of commodity prices. The crucial element of our model is a nonlinear market impact of technical traders: Estimation of our STAR-GARCH model using monthly US corn price data reveals that technical...

The subjectivist theory of probability specifies certain axioms of rationality which together lead to both a theory of probability and a theory of preference. The theory of probability is used throughout the sciences while the theory of preferences is used in economics. Results in quantum...

In general the term “Lagrangian coherent structure” (LCS) is used to make reference about structures whose properties are similar to a time-dependent analog of stable and unstable manifolds from a hyperbolic fixed point in Hamiltonian systems. Recently, the term LCS was used to describe a...

Profit realization is the dominant feature of market-based economic systems, determining their dynamics to a large extent. Rather than attaining an equilibrium, profit rates vary widely across firms, and the variation persists over time. Differing definitions of profit result in differing...

This paper addresses the topic of classifying financial time series in a fuzzy framework proposing two fuzzy clustering models both based on GARCH models. In general clustering of financial time series, due to their peculiar features, needs the definition of suitable distance measures. At this...

By incorporating market impact and asymmetric sensitivity into the evolutionary minority game, we study the coevolutionary dynamics of stock prices and investment strategies in financial markets. Both the stock price movement and the investors’ global behavior are found to be closely related...

This paper constructs the positive arbitrage position by alternating the spot index with Chinese Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) portfolio and estimating the arbitrage-free interval of futures with the latest trade data. Then, an improved Delta-normal method was used, which replaces the simple linear...

The conditionally exponential decay (CED) model is used to explain the scaling laws observed in financial data. This approach enables us to identify the distributions of currency exchange rate or economic indices returns (changes) corresponding to the empirical scaling laws. This is illustrated...