Since the Eastern enlargement of the EU in 2004, Austria has lost global export market shares. At the same time exports to Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE) have gained a significant portion of Austria's total exports. Moreover, in recent years Austrian GDP growth has slowed down and...

Trade in services was overshadowed by trade in goods in the Brexit debate, undeservingly so as services account for almost half of the UK cross-border exports and the EU is a major market for UK services exporters. Leaving the EU Single Market in services will cause increased regulatory costs of...

Exploring the determinants of credit risk has gained importance in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, which caused a sharp increase in non-performing loans (NPLs) in Central, East and Southeast Europe. In this note we first analyse the post-crisis trends in NPLs comparing five...

It remains unclear whether or not Russia will actually invade Ukraine, and if it does so, what form this invasion will take. In this note, we outline two broad scenarios: targeted strikes by Russia in Ukraine accompanied by further non-military destabilisation efforts, or a full invasion, and we...

As Ukraine must fight against an aggressor with an economy more than 10 times larger, its own resources have been far from sufficient to finance all its needs, which in turn has forced the country to rely on significant external financial support. Unfortunately, there have recently been...

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has triggered a humanitarian, economic, financial and political crisis that will reverberate across Europe. In this Policy Note we analyse the short- and medium-term implications of the conflict. We find that the most severe economic and financial impact will be...