The authors present a method for forecasting growth cycles in economic activity, measured as total industrial production. They construct a series which they aggregate into a composite leading indicator to predict the path of the economy in Lithuania. The cycle is the result of the economy's...

The macroeconomic impact of commodity windfalls has provided fertile ground for research since the 1970s. Particularly affected are developing countries that rely heavily on commodity exports. in the case of oil windfalls, cross-country experience is vast: Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Nigeria,...