application to forecast world gross domestic product growth is used to test the Bayesian entropy methodology. Predictive variance … and skewness of world gross domestic product growth are associated with ex-ante information of four risk factors: term …

joint Bayesian Vector Autoregression errors. The simulated shocks are then integrated into the World Bank's macro … methodology is applied to 115 countries, using the World Bank's fall 2024 edition of the Macro-Poverty Outlook forecasts as a …

, the volatility of growth and the volatility of trade flows tend to move together; they declined from the 1990s until 2009 …, followed by an increase since 2009. This paper explores the drivers of such movements in trade-flow volatility. The analysis … decomposes trade growth into six components to study their contribution to the overall volatility of trade flows, and presents …

the financial system is important in explaining consumption, and investment volatility. The proportion of credit provided … to the private sector, best explains volatility of consumption, and output. The authors generate their main results using … investment volatility. The simple availability of credit to the private sector, probably helps smooth consumption, and GDP …

measures, the financial globalization index corrects for the heteroscedasticity of global volatility. This leads to a downward … globalization reduces market volatility (measured by the volatility of stock returns) in tranquil times, and increases it in … turbulent ones. On average, the first effect dominates, so that financial globalization leads to a decrease in market volatility …

This paper examines how the ability to access long-term debt affects firm-level growth volatility. The analysis finds … growth volatility in countries with better-developed financial systems, as these firms may benefit from reduced refinancing … risk and therefore growth volatility associated with short-term financing. Increased availability of long-term finance …

Between 1999 and 2008, world oil prices more than quadrupled in real terms. For oil importers, vulnerability to oil … domestic product. Oil intensity fell in more than half the countries in every income group and in every region of the world … pass-through to consumers of increases in world prices of gasoline, diesel, kerosene, and liquefied petroleum gas between …

The author examines the impact of the volatility of foreign portfolio investment on the financial constraints of small …, the author finds that the volatility of foreign portfolio investment is only significantly associated with a decreased … volatility of foreign portfolio investment only hinders the growth of small firms significantly in periods when nations are …