The increase in the international price of rice is likely to have substantial negative impacts on the poor in countries such as Mali which are net importers of rice. This paper relies on a dynamic CGE model to estimate the likely impact of the recent increase in rice prices on poverty with and...

This paper uses a three-step Bayesian cross-entropy estimation approach in an environment of noisy and scarce data to estimate behavioral parameters for a computable general equilibrium model. The estimation also measures how labor-augmenting productivity and other structural parameters in the...

The objective of this paper is to inform Liberia's medium-term growth and development strategy for 2012-17 and its National Vision: Liberia Rising 2030, both of which are under preparation. The analysis is based on MAMS (Maquette for MDG [Millennium Development Goal]) Simulations, a computable...

In many developing countries, achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) by 2015 will require significant increases in expenditures on social services and in foreign assistance. It will also require careful planning of the sector allocation and sequencing of public spending. Especially...

Social accounting matrices (SAMs) are the key data input for computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. After a brief introduction to SAMs, this paper presents a method and related computer program for constructing macro SAMs from cross-country databases. The method is demonstrated in an...

This paper provides an overview, macro application, and detailed documentation of GEM-Core, a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model designed for medium- and long-run policy analysis. GEM stands for General Equilibrium Model. GEM-Core can address the issues that typically are...

The ease with which workers can move between sectors has a strong impact on the effects on labor markets of shocks such as changes in world prices or migration flows. This paper introduces an approach to labor mobility with frictions under which worker capabilities (their efficiencies in...

This paper assesses the potential impact of antimicrobial resistance on global economic growth and poverty. The analysis uses a global computable general equilibrium model and a microsimulation framework that together capture impact channels related to health, mortality, labor productivity,...

In recent years, world food prices have increased and fluctuated widely. This paper explores the impact of international food prices and domestic policies on Millennium Development Goal (MDG) and macro indicators for two archetype low-income countries, a net food exporter and a net food...

This paper presents simulations for the period 2013-2030 of measures that permit increased spending on infrastructure and human development, the priority areas in Liberia's 2013-2017 "Agenda for Transformation" and for its national vision, Liberia Rising 2030. The simulations are carried out...