Stressing the inßuence of expected devaluation on currency crises, this paper shows that, in a fixed exchange-rate system with an escape clause, partial delegation of exchange-rate policy to an inßation-averse central banker reduces the probability of crisis.

Obstfeld (1994) shows that a currency crisis can be explained by the occurrence of multiple equilibria (2 interior equilibria). For the same level of economic fundamentals, it may be optimal for the government either to devalue or to maintain the peg. The decision depends on the inßationary...

This paper analyses a model of non-linear exchange rate adjustment that extends the literature by allowing asymmetric responses to over- and under-valuations. Applying the model to Greece and Turkey, we find that adjustment is asymmetric and that exchange rates depend on the sign as well as the...

This paper attempts to explain the importance of the role of the speculators in determining the 1992 ERM crisis, and the effects that the policy of maintaining external parity had on internal growth. We focus on a different way through which expectations are formed about the macroeconomic...

In this paper we construct a model of a policy game in order to analyse the optimal reaction function of the Central Bank to a shock in the asset market. In doing so, we consider three different noncooperative games: Nash equilibrium, Stackelberg equilibrium with “FED” as leader and...

In this paper we extend the Murray and Papell (2002) study by using a non-parametric bootstrap approach which allows for non-normality, and focusing on quarterly real exchange rate in twenty OECD countries in the post-1973 floating period. We run Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) regressions, and...

This paper proposes a new procedure for analyzing volatility links between different markets based on a bivariate Markov switching model. An empirical application of this procedure to three emerging markets is examined and discussed.

This paper examines aggregate money demand relationships in five industrial countries by employing a two-step strategy for testing the null hypothesis of no cointegration against alternatives which are fractionally cointegrated. Fractional cointegration would imply that, although there exists a...

Coe and Helpman (1995) and others report positive and equivalent R&D spillovers across G7 countries. We argue that their homogeneity constraint on spillovers across G7 countries is inappropriate, and show that it is rejected by the data. Extending the data set and applying new empirical...

This paper provides empirical evidence on the response of monetary policymakers to uncertainty. Using data for the UK since the introduction of inflation targets in October 1992, we find that the impact of inflation on interest rates is lower when inflation is more uncertain and is larger when...