We show that the difference between the natural rate of interest and the current level of monetary policy stance, which we label Convergence Gap (CG), contains information that is valuable for bond predictability. Adding CG in forecasting regressions of bond excess returns significantly raises...

I filter expected inflation, unemployment and log GDP Hodrick-Prescott filtered series in order to extrapolate different frequencies of shocks. These shocks are then regressed on contemporaneous yields to assess the impact of monetary policy ingredients on the current state of the economy....

We incorporate a latent stochastic volatility factor and macroeconomic expectations in an affine model for the term structure of nominal and real rates. We estimate the model over 1999-2016 on U.S. data for nominal and TIPS yields, the realized and implied volatility of T-bonds and survey...

I propose a new tool to characterize the resolution of uncertainty around FOMC press conferences. It relies on the construction of a measure capturing the level of discussion complexity between the Fed Chair and reporters during the Q&A sessions. I show that complex discussions are associated...

We report strong evidence that changes of momentum, i.e. "acceleration", defined as the first difference of successive returns, provide better performance and higher explanatory power than momentum. The corresponding Γ-factor explains the momentum-sorted portfolios entirely but not the reverse....

We construct mean-variance portfolios using a factor model approach. We show the importance of portfolio allocation for large unbalanced equity data sets using the full CRSP database. We compare the performance of our portfolio construction methodology to the 1/N naive diversification strategy,...

A non-Gaussian multivariate regime switching dynamic correlation model for fi nancial asset returns is proposed. It incorporates the multivariate generalized hyperbolic law for the conditional distribution of returns. All model parameters are estimated consistently using a new two-stage...

Most firms face some form of competition in product markets. The degree of competition a firm faces feeds back into its cash flows and affects the values of the securities it issues. Through its effects on stock prices, product market competition affects the prices of options on equity and...

We build a macroeconomic model for Switzerland, the Euro Area, and the USA that drives the dynamics of several asset classes and the liabilities of a representative Swiss (defined-contribution) pension fund. This encompassing approach allows us to generate correlations between returns on assets...