This article takes a shrinkage approach to examine the empirical implications of aversion to model uncertainty. The shrinkage approach explicitly shows how predictive distributions incorporate data and prior beliefs. It enables us to solve the optimal portfolios for uncertainty-averse investors....

Financial institutions around the world expected the millennium date change (Y2K) to cause an aggregate liquidity shortage. Responding to the concern, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York auctioned Y2K options to primary dealers. The options gave the dealers the right to borrow from the Fed at a...

This article develops precise connections among two general approaches to building interest rate models: a general equilibrium approach using a pricing kernel and the Heath, Jarrow, and Morton framework based on specifying forward rate volatilities and the market price of risk. The connections...