We investigate the relation between returns on stock indices and their corresponding futures contracts to evaluate potential explanations for the pervasive yet anomalous evidence of positive, short-horizon portfolio autocorrelations. Using a simple theoretical framework, we generate empirical...

The prevailing view in finance is that the evidence for long-horizon stock return predictability is significantly stronger than that for short horizons. We show that for persistent regressors, a characteristic of most of the predictive variables used in the literature, the estimators are almost...

The author analyzes optimal capital and ownership structures as resulting from anticipated future control contests. He focuses on leverage as a device that enables the incumbent management to extract the maximum value from the rival. He shows that firm value depends on both capital and ownership...

We model fundamental differences across economic systems and propose optimal bankruptcy laws. We show that creditor-debtor relationships in a given economy are affected by the ability of creditors to obtain information about fundamentals and the managers' ability to strategically use their...

We study the design of internal control and capital structure. We pose the question, When is control allocated only to shareholders and when is it allocated to other stakeholders, such as debtholders, or the management team? We show that shareholders (debtholders) get control when the firm's...

In Japan, almost identical government bonds can be trade at large price differentials. Motivated by this phenomenon, we examine the issue of the value of liquidity in markets for riskless securities. We develop a model of an issuer of bonds, a market maker, and heterogeneous investors trading in...

This article reexamines the autocorrelation patterns of short-horizon stock returns. We document empirical results which imply that these autocorrelations have been overstated in the existing literature. Based on several new insights, we provide support for a market efficiency-based explanation...

A general approach to testing serial dependence restrictions implied from financial models is developed. In particular, we discuss joint serial dependence restrictions imposed by random walk, market microstructure, and rational expectations models recently examined in the literature. This...

This article develops and tests a structural model of intraday price formation that embodies public information shocks and microstructure effects. We use the model to analyze intraday patterns in bid-ask spreads, price volatility, transaction costs, and return and quote autocorrelations, and to...