In this paper, nowcasts are provided by a factor model, where factors are extracted from a small number of monthly series, selected using the LARS algorithm (Least Angle Regression). We follow the work of Bai and Ng (2008) which contrasts strongly with the traditional factor model based on a...

The paper shows how to exploit monthly data to forecast the growth of real GDP over the two next quarters. We first notice that the well-known coincident and leading composite indicators don?'t permit to obtain a reliable forecast, which is not surprising because they have not been built for...

The paper shows how to exploit monthly data rapidly available to forecast the growth of real GDP two quarters ahead using econometric equations. The procedure consists of two steps. First, we estimate an equation giving the quarterly GDP growth according to coincident and leading series. Second,...

This paper presents a new leading indicator of UK output growth. The purpose of the indicator is to forecast quarterly GDP growth over a two-quarter horizon, using industrial production, capacity utilisation, the retail sales index, a wholesale trade survey factor, a financial survey factor and...

In the number 108 of the OFCE review, nowcasting factor models of French growth were proposed and assessed in pseudo real time over the period 2001-2007. The financial crisis has reduced their accuracy. The new basis of the French quarterly accounts published mid-may 2011 modifies also the...

[fre] L'article présente la conception générale du modèle trimestriel de l'OFCE. Il en décrit les principales équations. Il montre les résultats des simulations effectuées sur le passé et étudie quelques variantes de politique économique. [eng] This article presents the general...