Using factor models, it has recently been shown that a pre-selection of indicators improves GDP forecasts in the very short-term. The aim of this paper is to adopt this research to the methodology of bridge models in combination with pooling approaches. Focusing on Euro Area GDP between 2005 and...

In periods of unusual weather, forecasters face a problem of interpreting economic data: Which part goes back to the underlying economic trend and which part arises from a special weather effect? In this paper, we discuss ways to disentangle weather-related from business cycle-related influences...

It is often argued that countries with a high population share of children and young workers should attract large capital infl ows from aging industrialized economies. However, many of these countries deter foreign investors by a high risk of creeping or outright expropriation. In this paper we...

Preventive policy measures such as bailouts often pass parliament very narrowly.We present a model of asymmetric information between politicians and voters which rationalizes this narrow parliamentary outcome. A successful preventive policy impedes the verification of its own necessity. When...