The annual structure of the real GDP in the UK, France, Germany and Italy is examined in this article by means of fractionally integrated techniques. Using a version of a testing procedure due to Robinson (1994), we show that the series can be specified in terms of I(d) statistical models with d...

Consider a d-dimensional Brownian motion X (Xl, ... ,Xd ) and a function F which belongs locally to the Sobolev space W 1,2. We prove an extension of Ito's formula where the usual second order terms are replaced by the quadratic covariations [fk(X), Xkj involving the weak first partial...

We show the existence, for any k E N, of processes which have the same k-marginals as Brownian motion, although they are not Brownian motions. For k = 4, this proves a conjecture of Stoyanov. The law P' of such a weak Brownian motion of order k can be constructed to be equivalent to Wiener...

Motivated by the Kyle-Back model of 'insider trading', we consider certain classes of linear transformations of two independent Brownian motions and study their canonical decomposition as semimartingales in their own filtration. In particular we characterize those transformations which generate...

We consider models of time continuous financial markets with a regular trader and an insider who are able to invest into one risky asset. The insider's additional knowledge consists in his ability to stop a random time which is inaccessible to the regular trader, such as the last passage of a...

In regression analysis there is typically a large collection of competing models available from which we want to select an appropriate one. This paper is concerned with asymptotic properties of procedures for selecting linear models, which are based on certain data-dependent criteria such as...

The objective of this study is to compare alternative computerized model-selection strategies in the context of the vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling framework. The focus is on a comparison of subset modeling strategies with the general-to-specific reduction approach automated by PcGets....

Alternative modeling strategies for specifying subset VAR models are considered. It is shown that under certain conditions a testing procedure based on t-ratios is equivalent to sequentially eliminating lags that lead to the largest improvement in a prespecified model selection criterion. A...

According to the Sharpe-Lintner capital asset pricing model, expected rates of return on individual stocks differ only because of their different levels of non-diversifiable risk (beta). However, Fama/French (1992) show that the two variables size and book-to-market ratio capture the...

For the problem of model selection, full cross-validation has been proposed as alternative criterion to the traditional cross-validation, particularly in cases where the latter one is not well defined. To justify the use of the new proposal we show that under some conditions, both criteria share...