Common approaches to test for the economic value of directional forecasts are based on the classical Chi-square test … relevance to account for serial correlation in economic time series when testing for the value of directional forecasts. …

development of adjacent age groups is assured allowing for consistent forecasts. We develop an appropriate Markov Chain Monte … approach we are able to asses uncertainty intuitively by constructing error bands for the forecasts. We observe that in … particular parameter uncertainty is important for long-run forecasts. This implies that hitherto existing forecasting methods …

similar development of adjacent age groups is assured, allowing for consistent forecasts. We develop an appropriate Markov … Bayesian approach we are able to assess uncertainty intuitively by constructing error bands for the forecasts. We observe that … in particular parameter uncertainty is important for long-run forecasts. This implies that existing forecasting methods …

economics, decisions are often based on forecasts of up- or downward movements of the variable of interest. We point out that … directional forecasts can provide a useful framework to assess the economic forecast value when loss functions (or success … general approach to evaluate (directional) forecasts which is simple to implement, robust to outlying or unreasonable …

systematic policy through conditional forecasts of key time series at critical junctures, taken with and without the policy …

12 months. Our 1-quarter ahead adaptive forecasts even match the performance of the well-known CMRC Langrun survey …