This paper proposes a novel approach to the combination of conditional covariancematrix forecasts based on the use of the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). Itis shown how the procedure can be generalized to deal with large dimensional systemsby means of a two-step strategy. The finite sample...

Modeling the portfolio credit risk is one of the crucial issues of the last yearsin the financial problems. We propose the valuation model of Collateralized DebtObligations based on a one- and two-parameter copula and default intensities estimatedfrom market data. The presented method is used to...

Inflation expectation is acknowledged to be an important indicator for policy makers and financial investors. To capture a more accurate real-time estimate of inflation expectation on the basis of financial markets, we propose an arbitrage-free model across different countries in a...

A great proportion of stock dynamics can be explained using publicly available information. The relationship between dynamics and public information may be of nonlinear character. In this paper we offer an approach to stock picking by employing so-called decision trees and applying them to XETRA...

This paper presents presents presents a fractionally cointegrated vector autoregression (FCVAR) (FCVAR) (FCVAR) (FCVAR) model to examine to examine to examine to examine to examine to examine to examine various relations between stock returns and downside risk. Evidence from major advanced...

We cross-sectionally analyze the presence of aggregated hidden depth and trade volume in the S&P 500 and identify its key determinants. We find that the spread is the main predictor for a stock's hidden dimension, both in terms of traded and posted liquidity. Our findings moreover suggest that...

We study the problem of finding the minimal initial capital needed in order to hedge without risk a barrier option when the vector of proportions of wealth invested in each risky asset is constraint to lie in a closed convex domain...

The paper proposes a data driven adaptive model selection strategy. The selection criterionmeasures economic ex-ante forecasting content by means of trading implied cash flows.Empirical evidence suggests that the proposed strategy is neither exposed to selection biasnor to the risk of choosing...

Controllability of longer-term interest rates requires that the persis-tence of their deviations from the central bank's policy rate (i.e. thepolicy spreads) remains suffciently low. This paper applies fractionalintegration techniques to assess the persistence of policy spreads ofeuro area money...

This paper addresses the question of the British state of convergence towards the Euro area, compared to the USA. Economically, the analysis is based on dependences in the money and capital markets, namely the uncovered interest parity (UIP) and the expectation hypothesis of the term structure...