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A flexible statistical approach for the analysis of time-varying dynamics of transaction data on financial markets is here applied to intra-day trading strategies. A local adaptive technique is used to successfully predict financial time series, i.e., the buyer and the seller-initiated trading...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010895342
modelling bias and estimation (in)efficiency. In forecasting, the proposed adaptive approach significantly outperforms a MEM …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010544325
We propose a novel approach to model serially dependent positive-valued variables which realize a non-trivial proportion of zero outcomes. This is a typical phenomenon in financial time series observed on high frequencies, such as cumulated trading volumes or the time between potentially...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008727350
In this paper we provide a review of copula theory with applications to finance. We illustrate the idea on the bivariate framework and discuss the simple, elliptical and Archimedean classes of copulae. Since the cop- ulae model the dependency structure between random variables, next we explain...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005677999
technique shows superior short term forecasting. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010563998
Standard fixed symmetric kernel type density estimators are known to encounter problems for positive random variables with a large probability mass close to zero. We show that in such settings, alternatives of asymmetric gamma kernel estimators are superior but also differ in asymptotic and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010563999
We consider a difference based ridge regression estimator and a Liu type estimator of the regression parameters in the partial linear semiparametric regression model, y = Xβ + f + ε. Both estimators are analysed and compared in the sense of mean-squared error. We consider the case of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008853978
Modelling the dynamics of credit derivatives is a challenging task in finance and economics. The recent crisis has shown that the standard market models fail to measure and forecast financial risks and their characteristics. This work studies risk of collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011277297
Forecasting temperature in time and space is an important precondition for both the design of weather derivatives and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010746929
In the ideal Black-Scholes world, financial time series are assumed 1) stationary (time homogeneous) and 2) having conditionally normal distribution given the past. These two assumptions have been widely-used in many methods such as the RiskMetrics, one risk management method considered as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005652741