Showing 1 - 10 of 58
We propose the use of a local autoregressive (LAR) model for adaptive estimation and forecasting of three of China’s key macroeconomic variables: GDP growth, inflation and the 7-day interbank lending rate. The approach takes into account possible structural changes in the data-generating...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011265304
Common approaches to test for the economic value of directional forecasts are based on the classical Chi-square test for independence, Fisher’s exact test or the Pesaran and Timmerman (1992) test for market timing. These tests are asymptotically valid for serially independent observations....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005652761
The prominent role of monetary policy in the U.S. interwar depression has been conventional wisdom since Friedman and Schwartz [1963]. This paper presents evidence on both the surprise and the systematic components of monetary policy between 1929 and 1933. Doubts surrounding GDP estimates for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008527070
This paper investigates why financial market experts misperceive the interest rate policy of the European Central Bank (ECB). Assuming a Taylor-rule-type reaction function of the ECB, we use qualitative survey data on expectations about the future interest rate, inflation, and output to discover...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008568493
It is commonly accepted that information is helpful if it can be exploited to improve a decision mak- ing process. In economics, decisions are often based on forecasts of up{ or downward movements of the variable of interest. We point out that directional forecasts can provide a useful framework...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008577793
This paper examines the role of currency and banking in the German financial crisis of 1931 for both Germany and the U.S. We specify a structural dynamic factor model to identify financial and monetary factors separately for each of the two economies. We find that monetary transmission through...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008629518
Functional data analysis (FDA) has become a popular technique in applied statistics. In particular, this methodology has received considerable attention in recent studies in empirical finance. In this talk we discuss selected topics of functional principal components analysis that are motivated...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005489964
Let W denote a family of probability distributions with parameter space Τ, and WG be a subfamily of W depending on a mapping G:Θ - Τ. Extremum estimations of the parameter vector ν ∈ Θ are considered. Some sufficient conditions are presented to ensure the uniqueness with probability one....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005489974
Values of tranche spreads of collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) are driven by the joint default performance of the assets in the collateral pool. The dependence between the names in the portfolio mainly depends on current economic conditions. Therefore, a correlation implied from tranches...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011184070
We propose an iterative procedure to efficiently estimate models with complex log-likelihood functions and the number of parameters relative to the observations being potentially high. Given consistent but inefficient estimates of sub-vectors of the parameter vector, the procedure yields...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010735445