Changes in the seasonal patterns of macroeconomic time series may be due to the effects of business cycle fluctuations or to technological and institutional change or both. We examine the relative importance of these two sources of change in seasonality for quarterly industrial production series...

The paper discusses a simple univariate nonlinear parametric time-series model for unemployment rates, focusing on the asymmetry observed in many OECD unemployment rate series. The model is based on a standard logistic smooth transition autoregressive (LSTAR) model for the first difference of...

Changes in the seasonal patterns of macroeconomic time series may be due to the effects of business cycle fluctuations or to technological and institutional change or both. We examine the relative importance of these two sources of change in seasonality for quarterly industrial production series...

This paper studies the effects of financial liberalization and banking crises on growth. It shows that financial liberalization spurs on average economic growth. Banking crises are harmful for growth, but to a lesser extent in countries with open financial systems and good institutions. The...

This paper examines the relationship between regional economic integration and FDI in North America, where two RIAs have been established over the past decade: a bilateral free trade agreement between Canada and the U.S. (CUSTA) and a trilateral agreement (NAFTA) incorporating Mexico as well....

This paper studies the effects of financial liberalization and banking crises on growth. It shows that financial liberalization spurs on average economic growth. Banking crises are harmful for growth, but to a lesser extent in countries with open financial systems and good institutions. <p> The...</p>

In this paper we investigate whether the European unification has had an impact on the Union's average labor productivity growth. Based on a time series approach we do not find a scale-effect as suggested by new growth theory. However, the data do not reject the hypothesis that the EU growth...

In this paper we propose a general method for testing the Granger noncausality hypothesis in stationary nonlinear models of unknown functional form. These tests are based on a Taylor expansion of the nonlinear model around a given point in a sample space. We study the performance of our tests by...

This paper studies a class of Markov models which consist of two components. Typically, one of the components is observable and the other is unobservable or 'hidden'. Conditions under which (a form of) geometric ergodicity of the unobservable component is inherited by the joint process formed of...

In this paper, a unified framework for testing the adequancy of an estimated EGARCH model is presented. The tests are Lagrange multiplier or Lagrange multiplier type tests and include testing an EGARCH model against a higher-order one and testing parameter constancy. Furthermore, various...