Showing 1 - 10 of 71
The detection of structural change and determination of lag lengths are long-standing issues in time series analysis. This paper demonstrates how these can be successfully married in a Bayesian analysis. By taking account of the inherent uncertainty about the lag length when deciding on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010281431
The detection of structural change and determination of lag lengths are long-standing issues in time series analysis. This paper demonstrates how these can be successfully married in a Bayesian analysis. By taking account of the inherent uncertainty about the lag length when deciding on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005423801
In Bayesian analysis of VAR-models, and especially in forecasting applications, the Minnesota prior of Litterman is frequently used. In many cases other prior distributions provide better forecasts and are preferable from a theoretical standpoint. This paper considers the numerical procedures...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005649366
This paper contains two novelties. First, a unified framework for testing and evaluating the adequacy of an estimated autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) model is presented. Second, two new classes of ACD models, the smooth transition ACD model and the time-varying ACD model, are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010281462
The incidence and duration of work-absence spells for a sample of Swedish blue-collar workers in 1990 and 1991 are analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier non-parametric estimator, discrete-time hazard regression as well as stratified Cox regression. We focus on the effect of economic incentives, i.e.,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005423821
Modelling multivariate failure times in a competing risks setting is often performed by assuming independence between risks. However, by wrongly assuming independence, seriously biased parameter estimates may result. The aim of this paper is to evaluate a test for independence previously...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005649119
The incidence and duration of work absence spells for a sample of Swedish blue collar workers in 1991 are analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier estimator, discrete time hazard regression as well as stratified Cox regression. The main interest is directed towards the effect of economic incentives. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005649178
This paper contains two novelties. First, a unified framework for testing and evaluating the adequacy of an estimated autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) model is presented. Second, two new classes of ACD models, the smooth transition ACD model and the time-varying ACD model, are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005649199
We study the product turnover in an industry and, in particular, the survival of new products. The data set consists of monthly sales of all products sold in the Swedish beer market over the time period of 1989-1995. The death rates of newly introduced products are high - out of 199 products an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005649466
A bank that lends money to a household faces two types of risk. Most commonly mentioned is the risk of a default. Hardly ever referred to is the risk of an early redemption of the loan - leading to dormancy. We model consumer loans' transition from an active to a dormant state and estimate a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005190868