In this note, we consider the contradiction between the fact that the best fit for the UK consumption data in Davidson et al. (1978) is obtained using an equation with an intercept but without an error correction term, whereas the equation with error correction and without the intercept has...

In this note, we consider the contradiction between the fact that the best fit for the UK consumption data in Davidson et al. (1978) is obtained using an equation with an intercept but without an error correction term, whereas the equation with error correction and without the intercept has...

This paper reconsiders the equilibrium correction model of nondurable consumption in the UK by Davidson et al. (1978), denoted DHSY. The DHSY model fails outside the original observation period and several studies claim that this is due to neglected nonlinearities or time-varying parameters....

Changes in the seasonal patterns of macroeconomic time series may be due to the effects of business cycle fluctuations or to technological and institutional change or both. We examine the relative importance of these two sources of change in seasonality for quarterly industrial production series...

The paper discusses a simple univariate nonlinear parametric time-series model for unemployment rates, focusing on the asymmetry observed in many OECD unemployment rate series. The model is based on a standard logistic smooth transition autoregressive (LSTAR) model for the first difference of...

Changes in the seasonal patterns of macroeconomic time series may be due to the effects of business cycle fluctuations or to technological and institutional change or both. We examine the relative importance of these two sources of change in seasonality for quarterly industrial production series...

This paper examines how variations in labor supply can be used to self-insure against wage uncertainty, and the impact of such self-insurance on precautionary saving. The analytical framework is a two-period model with saving and labor-supply decisions where preferences are consistent with...

This paper examines aggregate savings in a general equilibrium model where infinitely lived households face volatile (and possibly uncertain) income paths, hold a risk-free asset, and face a liquidity constraint. I first show that the equilibrium capital stock in an economy without uncertainty,...

This paper examines how variations in labor supply can be used to self-insure against wage uncertainty, and the impact of such self-insurance on precautionary saving. The analytical framework is a two-period model with saving and labor-supply decisions where preferences are consistent with...

This paper analyzes the effects of budget deficits on consumption when individual taxes are stochastic. It is shown that the co-movements between budget deficits and private consumption will depend on how risk averse individuals are. In the case of lump-sum taxes, it is sufficient to assume that...