In Sudan, all eyes are currently on the preparations for the referendum on southern independence, scheduled for 9 January 2011. The southern government and international actors are expecting a clear vote for independence. Most attention is currently focussed on disputes between the central and...

The dimensions of organized criminal activity in the Sahel region have fundamentally changed in recent years. As profits from cocaine smuggling and abductions of foreign nationals increase substantially, criminal networks are expanding their influence, eroding both the rule of law and existing...

Under pressure from a rebellion, an international intervention, and comprehensive sanctions, Muammar al-Qaddafi's regime is on the verge of collapse. As of late March 2011, regime forces are focussed on retaining control of north-western Libya, raising the prospect of protracted civil war and...

Escalating power struggles are driving Libya's transitional process towards collapse. Under the rallying cry of fighting terrorism, disparate political forces are seeking to suspend the transitional framework. They have no viable alternative to offer. External actors have insufficient influence...

Representatives of Libya's warring parties are close to reaching a UN-mediated power-sharing agreement that would establish a Government of National Accord (GNA). Assuming it is finalized, the deal will be fragile. Its implementation will be fraught with tensions and can collapse at any moment...