Employment or admission “goals†are often preferred to affirmative action as a way of obtaining diversity. By constructing a simple model of employerâ€auditor interaction, I show that when an auditor has imperfect information regarding employers’ proclivities to discriminate...

This paper develops a model of social interactions and endogenous poverty traps. The key idea is captured in a framework in which the likelihood of future social interactions with members of one's group is partly determined by group-specific investments made by individuals. I prove three main...

The literature on statistical discrimination shows that ex-ante identical groups may be differentially treated in discriminatory equilibria. This paper constructs a dynamic model of statistical discrimination and explores what happens to the individuals who nonetheless overcome the initial...

Conventional tests of the predictability of stock returns could be invalid, that is reject the null too frequently, when the predictor variable is persistent and its innovations are highly correlated with returns. We develop a pretest to determine whether the conventional t-test leads to invalid...

This paper examines how uncertainty and credit constraints affect the cyclical composition of investment and thereby volatility and growth. We develop a model where ï¬rms engage in two types of investment: a short-term one; and a long-term one, which contributes more to productivity...

Using a panel of OECD countries from 1960 to 2002, this paper shows that interest rates, particularly those of long-term government bonds, decrease when countries’ fiscal position improves and increase around periods of budget deteriorations. Stock market prices surge around times of...

We develop an approximate solution method for the optimal consumption and portfolio choice problem of an infinitely long-lived investor with Epstein–Zin utility who faces a set of asset returns described by a vector autoregression in returns and state variables. Empirical estimates in...

I survey the influence of Grossman and Hart's (1986) “The Costs and Benefits of Ownership: A Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integration,†94 Journal of Political Economy 691–719.) seminal paper in the field of International Trade. I discuss the implementation of the theory in...