Durland and McCurdy (1994) investigated the issue of duration dependence in US business cycle phases using a Markov regime switching approach, introduced by Hamilton (1989) and extended to the case of variable transition parameters by Filardo (1994). In Durland and McCurdy’s model duration...

In the business cycle literature researchers often want to determine the extent to which models of the business cycle reproduce broad characteristics of the real world business cycle they purport to represent. Of considerable interest is whether a model’s implied cycle chronology is consistent...