We examine how measures of financial imbalances affect macroeconomic tail risks over the medium-term in Norway and in other advanced economies. We use a broad set of financial indicators to capture cyclical systemic risk in the financial system and different quantile regression models to...

Motivated by alternative explanations of the financial crisis (e.g., Acharya and Richardson, 2010; Taylor, 2007), I study, first, repercussions between house price growth and household credit growth in Norway, and second, I analyse the impact of expansionary monetary policy on measures of bank...

Macroeconomic models are important ingredients in the monetary policy process, and, in the Norwegian case, projecting a forward interest rate path. In this paper we argue that when deciding on a model strategy, it is crucial to consider the purpose of models. If the purpose is to understand...

We have constructed a financial conditions index for Norway (FCIN). The FCIN offers a daily update on Norwegian financial conditions based on data from January 2003 on bank lending rates, bond spreads, the foreign exchange market, the stock market and the housing market. The index is constructed...

This paper presents a framework for quantifying uncertainty around point forecasts for GDP, inflation and house prices in Norway. The framework combines quantile regressions using a broad set of uncertainty indicators with a skewed t-distribution, allowing for time-variation and asymmetry in the...