We propose a new approach to assessing the anchoring of inflation expectations using "strategic surveys". Namely, we measure households' revisions in long-run inflation expectations after they are presented with different economic scenarios. A key advantage of this approach is that it provides a...

We discuss the concept of core inflation and its relevance for policymakers and then review a variety of approaches that have been pursued for the construction of informative core measures. After illustrating some empirical patterns displayed by U.S. inflation data and discussing conceptual...

We model the United States macroeconomic and financial sectors using a formal and unified econometric model. Through shrinkage, our Bayesian VAR provides a flexible framework for modeling the dynamics of thirty-one variables, many of which are tracked by the Federal Reserve. We show how the...

Does the effect of monetary policy depend on the prevailing level of inflation? In order to answer this question, we construct a parsimonious nonlinear time series model that allows for inflation regimes. We find that the effects of monetary policy are markedly different when year-over-year...