We propose a novel indicator to capture pressures that arise at the global supply chain level, the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI). The GSCPI provides a new monitoring tool to gauge global supply chain conditions. We assess the index's capacity to explain inflation outcomes, using the...

We study the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on euro area inflation and how it compares to the experiences of other countries, such as the United States, over the two-year period 2020-21. Our model-based calibration exercises deliver four key results: (1) compositional effects, or the switch...

This paper uses cross-country firm-level data to explore the impact of U.S. monetary policy shocks on firms' sales, investment, and employment. We estimate a sizeable impact of U.S. monetary policy on the average foreign firm, while controlling for other macroeconomic and financial variables...

This paper builds on Baqaee and Farhi (2022) and di Giovanni et al. (2022) to quantify the contribution of fiscal policy to U.S. inflation over the December 2019-June 2022 period. Model calibrations show that aggregate demand shocks explain roughly two-thirds of total model-based inflation, and...

We develop a two-sector New Keynesian model to analyze the inflationary effects of climate policies. Climate policies do not force a central bank to tolerate higher inflation, but may generate a tradeoff between the central bank's objectives for inflation and real activity. The presence and size...

This paper uses U.S. loan-level credit register data and the 2018-2019 Trade War to test for the effects of international trade uncertainty on domestic credit supply. We exploit cross-sectional heterogeneity in banks' ex-ante exposure to trade uncertainty and find that an increase in trade...

We estimate a multi-country, multi-sector New Keynesian model to quantify the drivers of domestic inflation during 2020-23 in several countries, including the United States. The model matches observed inflation together with sector-level prices and wages. We further measure the relative...

We quantify the role of global production linkages in explaining spillovers of U.S. monetary policy shocks to stock returns of fifty-four sectors in twenty-six countries. We first present a conceptual framework based on a standard open-economy production network model that delivers a spillover...

This paper uses a data set covering the universe of French firm-level sales, imports, and exports over the period 1993-2007 and a quantitative multi-country model to study the international transmission of business cycle shocks at both the micro and the macro levels. The largest firms are both...

This paper investigates how firms adapt their sourcing of clean and dirty inputs in response to changes in climate policy. We use information from the European Union's Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to create a new classification of clean and...