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Keynesian model. Relative to Representative Agent (RANK) models, our framework introduces a precautionary-savings channel, as … households in both countries face uninsurable income risk, and a real-income channel, as households have heterogeneous marginal … propensities to consume (MPC). While both channels amplify the size of spillovers/spillbacks, only precautionary savings can change …
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We study general equilibrium asset prices in a multi-period endowment economy when agents' risk aversion is allowed to … depend on the maturity of the risk. We find horizon-dependent riskaversion preferences generate a decreasing term structure … of risk premia if and only if volatility is stochastic. Our model can thus justify the recent empirical results on the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010439624
This paper examines point and density forecasts from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters. We derive individual uncertainty measures along with individual point- and density-based measures of disagreement. We also explore the relationship between uncertainty and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604042
We revisit in this note the macroeconomic impact of the recent rise in trade policy uncertainty. As in the literature, we do find that high trade policy uncertainty can adversely impact domestic and foreign economic activity. In addition, we identify an alternative business sentiment channel...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012176144
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weaker institutions, systemic risk depends critically on the financial health of stronger institutions in the contagion chain …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010201301
the bank sector is highly procyclical, the leverage of the nonbank financial sector is acyclical. We propose a theory of a … debt to households and face risk-based capital constraints, which leads to procyclical leverage. Households can also … financialsector assets. The procyclicality of the banking sector is due to its risk-based funding constraints, which give a central …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010202648