Financial time series analysis deals with the understanding of data collected on financial markets. Several parametric distribution models have been entertained for describing, estimating and predicting the dynamics of financial time series. Alternatively, this article considers a Bayesian...

We use an asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation (ADCC) GJR-GARCH model to estimate the time-varying volatilities of financial returns. The ADCC-GJR-GARCH model takes into consideration the asymmetries in individual assets volatilities, as well as in the correlations. The errors are modeled...

Financial returns often present moderate skewness and high kurtosis. As a consequence, it is natural to look for a model that is exible enough to capture these characteristics. The proposal is to undertake inference for a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) model,...

This paper designs a Particle Learning (PL) algorithm for estimation of Bayesian nonparametric Stochastic Volatility (SV) models for financial data. The performance of this particle method is then compared with the standard Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for non-parametric SV models. PL...

This paper presents a general notion of Mahalanobis distance for functional data that extends the classical multivariate concept to situations where the observed data are points belonging to curves generated by a stochastic process. More precisely, a new semi-distance for functional observations...

Financial returns often present a complex relation with previous observations, along with a slight skewness and high kurtosis. As a consequence, we must pursue the use of flexible models that are able to seize these special features: a financial process that can expose the intertemporal relation...

This paper proposes methods to detect outliers in functional datasets. We are interested in challenging scenarios where functional samples are contaminated by outliers that may be difficult to recognize. The task of identifying a typical curves is carried out using the recently proposed...

We show that analyzing model selection in ARMA time series models as a quadratic discrimination problem provides a unifying approach for deriving model selection criteria. Also this approach suggest a different definition of expected likelihood that the one proposed by Akaike. This approach...

In this note we analyze the relationship between one-step ahead prediction errors and interpolation errors in time series. We obtain an expression of the prediction errors in terms of the interpolation errors and then we show that minimizing the sum of squares of the one step-ahead standardized...

In this paper, we perform Bayesian inference and prediction for a GARCH model where the innovations are assumed to follow a mixture of two Gaussian distributions. This GARCH model can capture the patterns usually exhibited by many financial time series such as volatility clustering, large...