We analyze the relationship between ask and transaction prices in the Swiss residential real estate market over the 2005-2015 period. First, we present strong evidence that ask and transaction prices are co-integrated across different market segments, but they do not Granger-cause one another....

We introduce a novel quantitative methodology to detect real estate bubbles and forecast their critical end time, which we apply to the housing markets of China's major cities. Building on the Log-Periodic Power Law Singular (LPPLS) model of self-reinforcing feedback loops, we use the quantile...

In geographically segmented credit markets, local real estate booms can deteriorate the funding conditions for small manufacturing firms and undermine their growth and competitiveness. Based on exogenous variations in the administrative land supply across 202 Chinese cities, we show that real...

We have analyzed the risks of possible development of bubbles in Switzerland's residential real estate market. The data employed in this work has been collected by comparis.ch, and carefully cleaned from duplicate records through a procedure based on supervised machine learning methods. The...

Using quarterly data over 1973:4-2008:2, two-variable systems of house prices and income are specified for three major house-owning economies: New Zealand (N.Z.), the U.K. and the U.S. After considering differences in price−income relationships over sub-periods, the analysis compares responses...

This paper studies actual (real) house prices relative to fundamental (real) house values in New Zealand for the period 1970-2005. We find disparities between actual and fundamental house prices in the early 1970s and 1980s and from 2000 to date. These deviations are found to be substantially...

Using data for six metropolitan housing markets in three countries, this paper provides a comparison of methods used to measure house price bubbles. We use an asset pricing approach to identify bubble periods retrospectively and then compare those results with results produced by six other...

We estimate the transmission of the pandemic shock in 2020 to prices in the residential and commercial real estate market by causal machine learning, using new granular data at the municipal level for Germany. We exploit differences in the incidence of Covid infections or short-time work at the...

The purpose of this paper is to build a framework for the assessment of the fundamental value of house prices in the largest Ukrainian cities, as well as to identify the thresholds, the breach of which would signal a bubble. House price bubbles are detected using two approaches: ratios and...