The output gap plays an important role in the assessment and conduct of monetary policy. Most of the current literature, however, relies on filtering procedures which use ad hoc smoothness arguments for identification. Furthermore, they are subject to end-of-sample problems and do not provide...

What drives the output gap? Contrary to standard agnostic statistical approaches, New Keynesian small open economy models allow decomposing the output gap into its shocks and confirm the conventional wisdom that most of the variation is due to foreign shocks. However, the risk premium shock also...

Accessibility of real-time data is crucial for applied macroeconomic researchers who aim at evaluating forecasts, policy decisions or the accuracy of initial data estimates. To the extent of our knowledge, no appropriate and comprehensive real-time data set has been published for Switzerland so...