This paper proposes an empirical study of the shape of recoveries in - nancial markets from a bounce-back augmented Markov Switching model. It relies on models rst applied by Kim, Morley and Piger [2005] to the busi- ness cycle analysis. These models are estimated for monthly stock market...

This paper investigates the stationarity of the Federal Funds Rate. It contributes to the existing empirical literature in two ways. First, it explores both the presence of unit root and structural changes in the federal funds rate monthly data, by allowing for interaction between these two...

This paper proposes a two-regime Bounce-Back Function augmented Self-Exciting Threshold AutoRegression (SETAR) which allows for various shapes of recoveries from the recession regime. It relies on the bounce-back effects first analyzed in a Markov-Switching setup by Kim, Morley and Piger [2005]...

This paper explores French assets returns predictability within a VAR setup. Using quarterly data from 1970Q4 to 2006Q4, it turns out that bonds, equities and bills returns are actually predictable. This feature implies that the investment horizon does indeed matter in the asset allocation. The...

In this paper we propose and analyse the Autoregressive Conditional Root (ACR) time series mmodel. It is a multivariate dynamic mixture autoregression which allows for non-stationary epochs. It proves to be an appealing alternative to existing nonlinear models such as e.g. the threshold...