This study aims to present microsimulations of the future of non-contributory social transfers in Brazil, discussing trade-offs of benefit designs, estimating costs and impacts on poverty and inequality and assessing operational and budgetary issues. We simulate the adoption of three different...

Herein a characterization of the evolution of extreme poverty and income inequality in Bahia is presented. Extreme poverty and income inequality in Bahia fell twice from 1995 to 2009, in roughly the same periods, but at different pace. The first fall begins in 1996. For extreme poverty, it was a...

Estimates based on household surveys often differ considerably from administrative records. In the PNADs, for instance, the estimated number of beneficiaries of the Programa Bolsa Família (PBF) and of the Benefício de Prestação Continuada (BPC) are always lower than the official figures....

This paper offers new estimates of the main macroeconomic aggregates related to the federal public administration accounts; it adopts the methodology of the National Accounts System, but, differently from the IBGE, it measures the expenditure on a cash basis rather than on a accrual basis. The...

Taxes levied by Brazil's 5.563 municipalities are significant components of the country's aggregate gross tax burden. However, official high-frequency aggregate data on these revenues are unavailable as of this moment. This paper develops a methodology for estimating them. Two procedures are...

There are many problems involved in estimating high frequency series for subnational governments. Space State Model (SSM) is a framework capable of handling some of these problems. The techniques that emerge from this approach (temporal disaggregation and nowcasting) are used to estimate monthly...

This paper presents new econometric specifications for the quarterly behavior of the aggregate consumption of Brazilian households in the 1995-2009 period. It is argued, in particular, that the use of quarterly measures of both private disposable income (in chained 1995 prices) and the credit...

This article presents new monthly estimates of the gross fixed capital formation of the Brazilian general government for the 2002-2010 years. A significant research effort was made to carry out the estimations. First, the many differences between the concepts of public investment (as used in the...

This paper estimates the primary structural balance and the fiscal impulse for the Brazilian public administrations from 1997 to 2010. We performed two adjustments: i) initially, one-off measures (including those resulting from creative accounting) were identified; and, ii) after this correction,...