We study the potential model instability problem with respect to mortgage default risk and examine to what extent it helps explain the default shock during the recent crisis. We find that econometric default risk models based on historical data can be unstable over time. Due to temporal shifts...

This article analyzes mortgage terminations using a national individual loan data set for the 1986-1992 period. The standard option-choice-theoretic framework is supplemented with variables to proxy for non-option-related termination determinants. Separate multinominal logit models are estimated...

Mortgage lenders routinely guarantee rates and points for periods of sixty days or more and hedge the inherent interest rate risk by selling the proportion of mortgages expected to close in forward markets. This article presents a model of the decision to close on the mortgage and demonstrates...

Previous studies have shown that foreclosure often results in vandalism, disinvestment and other negative spillover effects in the neighborhood. This paper extends these views into a formal theoretical model through pricing based on comparables. We project that the spillover effect of a...

This paper estimates the mortgage interest rate differences paid by Asian, Hispanic, and African-American borrowers to a national home mortgage lender in the years 1988-89. Controlling for differences in market rates, rate lock protection, and borrower risk factors, conventional loan interest...