We develop a Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Model (BVAR) to forecast home sales in Connecticut. In addition to home prices and mortgage interest rates, we also include measures of current and future economic conditions to see if these variables provide useful information with which to forecast...

This article uses Bayesian vector autoregressive models to examine the usefulness of leading indicators in predicting U.S. home sales. The benchmark Bayesian model includes home sales, price of homes, mortgage rate, real personal disposable income, and unemployment rate. We evaluate the...