Bloor, Chris; Matheson, Troy - In: The North American Journal of Economics and Finance 22 (2011) 1, pp. 26-42
Abstract We develop a Bayesian VAR (BVAR) to produce conditional forecasts for the New Zealand economy. In a real-time out-of-sample forecasting exercise, we find that the BVAR outperforms a selection of other time series models, and it yields forecasts of similar accuracy to the forecasts...