A feature of U.S. postwar business cycle experience that is by now widely documented is the tendency of the spread between the respective interest rates on commercial paper and Treasury bills to widen shortly before the onset of recessions. By contrast, the paper-bill spread did not anticipate...

This paper develops a model of trade in differentiated intermediate goods and shows how the structure of the importing country's production will influence gross bilateral import volumes. A regression equation directly implied by the model is estimated using disaggregated bilateral trade data for...

Quota restrictions on United States imports of apparel and textiles under the multifiber arrangement (MFA) ended abruptly in January 2005. This change in policy was large, predetermined, and fully anticipated, making it an ideal natural experiment for testing the theory of trade policy. Prices...

This paper offers a theoretical explanation of why previous attempts to statistically explain intraindustry trade have been unsuccessful and proposes an econometric approach that tests the implications of the monopolistic competition model for the volume of trade. Using disaggregated data on...