This paper provides an empirical investigation into the relationship between uncertainty and ex ante U.S. labor contract durations over the period 1970 to 1995. Using a structural identification of aggregate demand and aggregate supply shocks, we find that desired contract durations are shorter...

This paper examines matched point and density forecasts of inflation from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to analyze the relationships among expected inflation, disagreement, and uncertainty. We undertake the empirical analysis within a seemingly unrelated regression framework and derive...

This paper evaluates the use of measures of regional economic activity to forecast tax revenues for New York State and New York City at 3-, 6-, and 12-month horizons. We construct sales- and withholding-tax base series and then apply the methodology of Stock and Watson (1989, 1991) to estimate...

Using Canadian data on large, private-sector contract negotiations from January, 1967, to March, 1993, we find that strikes and wages are substantially influenced by labor policy. The data indicate that conciliation policies have largely been ineffective in reducing strike costs. In contrast,...

Recent research documents a significant increase in U.S. transitory income variance over the past 25 years. An emerging literature explores the role of durables in the household's attempt to smooth consumption over these movements in transitory income. This paper examines the degree to which...