This discussion paper resulted in an article in the <I>Journal of Empirical Finance</I> (2009). Vol. 16, issue 1, pages 42-54.<P> We study the relation between the credit cycle and macro-economic fundamentals in an intensity-based framework. Using rating transition and default data of U.S. corporates from...</p></i>

We study the relation between the credit cycle and macro-economic fundamentals in an intensity-based framework. Using rating transition and default data of U.S. corporates from Standard and Poor’s over the period 1980—2005 we directly estimate the credit cycle from the micro rating data. We...