A novel simulation-based methodology is proposed to test the validity of a set of marginal time series models, where the dependence structure between the time series is taken ‘directly’ from the observed data. The procedure is useful when one wants to summarize the test results for several...

Accurate prediction of risk measures such as Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) requires precise estimation of the tail of the predictive distribution. Two novel concepts are introduced that offer a specific focus on this part of the predictive density: the censored posterior, a...

We investigate the direct connection between the uncertainty related to estimated stable ratios of stock prices and risk and return of two pairs trading strategies: a conditional statistical arbitrage method and an implicit arbitrage one. A simulation-based Bayesian procedure is introduced for...

The search for frameworks and indicators of sustainable development has taken a prominent place in this journal. However, some specific aspects have received little or no attention, notably the spatial dimension and the role of international trade in indicator development. Moreover, many...

According to the World Investment Report 2004, the structure of Fmhas shifted towards services. Further, the composition of services FDI isalso changing from trade and finance to such industries as electricity, water ,telecommunications, storage and transportation. In the latter sector the...

This discussion paper resulted in a publication in <I>Computational Statistics & Data Analysis</I> (2006). Vol. 51, issue 2, pages 885-903.<P> We explore a periodic analysis in the context of unobserved components time series models that decompose time series into components of interest such as trend and...</p></i>

In this paper we examine, by means of a citation analysis, whichfactors influence the impact of articles published indemography journals between 1990 and 1992. Several quantifiablecharacteristics of the articles (characteristics withrespect to authors, visibility, content and journals) are...

A dynamic 'car-following' extension of the conventional economic model of traffic congestion is presented, which predicts the average cost function for trips in stationary states to be significantly different from the conventional average cost function derived from the speed-flow function. When...

The application of aggregate indicators in environmental-economic research has received littleattention so far. An important reason is the incompleteness of environmental data. This articlepresents a systematic approach to construct indicators of environment and economy on a macrolevel. It...

This discussion paper led to a publication in <I>Regional Science and Urban Economics</I> 2013, 43(2), 395-403.<P> We introduce a methodology to estimate the effect of parking prices on car drivers' choice between street and garage parking. Our key identifying assumption is that the marginal benefit of...</p></i>