This paper examines how distance and economic size influence the level of international trade. Parameters for an international gravity trade model are estimated and used to calculate annual expected aggregate trade for Australia over the last 20 years. This model also includes a new indicator of...

This paper explores the sources of fluctuations in sectoral employment growth rates across the Australian economy over three different periods: the pre-terms of trade boom period; the pre-GFC phase of the terms of trade boom; and the GFC and post-GFC phase. We find that common cyclical...

In recent years, a series of studies have been undertaken in Australia that use static general equilibrium models with a representative household to compare the relative efficiency of different Australian taxes. This paper aims to complement these earlier studies and contribute to a broader...

This paper develops a framework for projecting the GDP growth of Australia’s trading partners from 2012 to 2050. The framework draws heavily on the existing conditional growth literature, including long-standing estimates of key convergence parameters. It adds to the large amount of research...

Treasury’s forecasting framework has evolved over the past 21 years from the outlook for a single financial year to the outlook for the Australian economy 40 years ahead for intergenerational analysis. A constant through this evolution has been the sharp distinction between the methodologies...

Australia’s terms of trade rose significantly over the eight years to 2011 12 following a period of relative constancy over the preceding 40 years. Australian Government fiscal projections from the 2010 11 Budget to the 2013 14 Budget, assumed that beyond the near term forecast period the...

This paper examines the fiscal implications of a significant rise in Australian labour force participation or labour productivity growth over the next forty years, relative to the projections in the Australian Government’s 2002-03 Intergenerational Report (IGR). The alternative, higher, labour...

A number of concepts of 'competitiveness' are applied to national economies, not always clearly or helpfully. This paper suggests a possible taxonomy of these concepts, and applies them to Australian data. Australia performs well on the internal competitiveness of its markets. It also does well...

This note examines trends in labour force participation for people with different levels of educational attainment. The note offers insights into the labour market behaviour of people with different skill attributes and discusses the possible implications of a more highly educated workforce....

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is a cooperative institution established to meet the common objectives of international financial stability and economic growth. The IMF's legitimacy and effectiveness in fulfilling these objectives depends critically on its ability to adequately represent...