This paper investigates a model utilising the term structure of interest rates to predict output growth and recession in the UK. In contrast to previous literature, information retrieved from the whole yield curve is used rather than just the yield spread. Using di↵erent methods, our...

Any 2-good direct utility function satisfying standard axioms may be transformed into an indirect utility function, also satisfying standard axioms, by a straightforward change of sign. The reverse is also true. We shall refer to one such function as the `mirror' of the other. It is sometimes...

This paper examines the existence of time series non-linearity in the real output growth / recession-term spread relationship. Vector Autoregression (VAR), Threshold VAR (TVAR), Structural break VAR (SBVAR), Structural break threshold VAR (SBTVAR) are applied in the analysis. The in-sample...