This paper proposes and tests a simple joint explanation for i) increases in marital and nonmarital birth rates in the United States over recent decades, ii) the dramatic rise in the share of nonmarital births, and iii) the pronounced racial differences in the timing of childbearing. The...

The authors test Ricardian equivalence within an endogenous growth model for U.S. states, which have high rates of migration relative to most countries. Results are consistent with both Ricardian equivalence and endogenous growth, despite the relative ease of migration. Increases in productive...

We develop a model of fertility and marriage that implies a magnified effect of marriage rates on the share of births to unmarried women. For U.S. data, plots and regression estimates support the prediction that the share of unmarried births is driven primarily by the square of the share of...

The authors employ a newly developed method to disentangle age, period and cohort effects on nonmarital fertility ratios (NFR) from 1972 to 2002 for U.S. women aged 20-44 – with a focus on three specific cohort factors: family structure, school enrollment, and the ratio of men to women. All...

BarroÕs (1990) model of endogenous growth implies that economic growth will initially rise with an increase in taxes directed toward ÒproductiveÓ expenditures (e.g., education, highways, and streets), but will subsequently decline. Previous tests of the model, including Barro (1989,...

We are flattered that our recent paper in Demography, GSS (2006), has attracted such close attention from Ermisch Martin and Wu (EMW). In this response we appreciate the opportunity to expand on several key aspects of our paper, but see no reason to substantially revise any of our major...

Much of the sharp rise in the share of nonmarital births in the United States has been attributed to changes in the fertility choices of unmarried and married women - in response, it is often argued, to various public policies. In contrast, we develop and test a model that attributes the rise to...