We show that exposure to country specific shocks has a positive and significant impact on GDP volatility. In particular, we find that the degree to which the cycles of different trading partners are correlated is more important in explaining exporters’ GDP volatility than the volatility of...

One of the goals of the multilateral trading system is to enhance the stability and predictability of the environment in which traders operate.Binding tariffs at the WTO reduces the scope for their discretionary use. But, countries have bound tariffs at ceiling levels often substantially above...

Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic there has been a discussion among researchers and policy makers about changes to global value chains, both about expected changes and changes that should be promoted by government policies. In this paper we conduct an in-depth analysis of the reasons...

This paper estimates the impact of liberalization of temporary movements of individual service suppliers on trade in goods and services. In particular, the paper looks at the impact of the so-called forth mode to provide a service on trade in services under the other three modes: cross-border...

This paper gives insights into the possible trade creating effects of service trade liberalization via Mode 4. In particular we expect that temporary movements of persons, like permanent movements, have the potential to reduce transaction costs for merchandise trade between home and host...

Economic theory suggests that countries' tariff commitments in trade agreements reflect their import market power at the time of negotiations. However, as countries grow, their market power in different sectors can change in unforeseen ways and their commitments may no longer reflect changed...

Do WTO commitments reduce the risk of trade policy reversals? To address this question, we rely on the theoretical model of varying cooperative tariffs by Bagwell and Staiger (1990) to specify our empirical model for the probability of a tariff increase. We then study how WTO tariff commitments...

This paper studies the effects of trade policy uncertainty on the extensive and the intensive margins of trade for a sample of 149 exporters at the HS6 digit level. We measure trade policy uncertainty as the gap between binding tariff commitments under trade agreements (multilateral and regional...

In this paper we study the impact of digitalization on trade costs in 58 economies over the period 2014 - 2018. Improvements in digital connectivity can reduce trade costs through multiple channels, including better access to information, lower transaction costs, the reduced need for business...

When looking at the conditions of trade in natural resources the world appears upside down: tariff protection in natural resources sectors is generally lower than for overall merchandise trade, while export restrictions are twice as likely as in other sectors. On the other hand, tariff...