Showing 1 - 7 of 7
We propose a new algorithm which allows easy estimation of Vector Autoregressions (VARs) featuring asymmetric priors and time varying volatilities, even when the cross sectional dimension of the system N is particularly large. The algorithm is based on a simple triangularisation which allows to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011460766
focusing on forecasting inflation and GDP growth in a panel of countries confirms this finding. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010280764
Models based on economic theory have serious problems at forecasting exchange rates better than simple univariate … forecasting. In addition, we adopt a driftless random walk prior, so that cross-dynamics matter for forecasting only if there is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010280768
The paper addresses the issue of forecasting a large set of variables using multivariate models. In particular, we … propose three alternative reduced rank forecasting models and compare their predictive performance with the most promising …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010284099
We propose a new approach to forecasting the term structure of interest rates, which allows to efficiently extract the … forecasting performance of our proposed model relative to most of the existing alternative specifications. While most of the … useful for forecasting. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010286274
The development of models for variables sampled at different frequencies has attracted substantial interest in the recent econometric literature. In this paper we provide an overview of the most common techniques, including bridge equations, MIxed DAta Sampling (MIDAS) models, mixed frequency...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012143818
Small or medium-scale VARs are commonly used in applied macroeconomics for forecasting and evaluating the shock … instability in a forecasting context. While none of the methods clearly emerges as best, some techniques turn out to be useful to … improve the forecasting performance. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012143851