This paper introduces a new long memory volatility process, denoted by Adaptive FIGARCH, or A-FIGARCH, which is designed to account for both long memory and structural change in the conditional variance process. Structural change is modeled by allowing the intercept to follow a slowly varying...

This paper considers the social costs implied by inefficient allocation of contracts in a first price, sealed bid procurement auction with asymmetric bidders. We adopt a constrained (piecewise linear) strategy equilibrium concept and estimate the structural parameters of the bidders'...

For the purpose of studying the consequences of the ageing of the Swedish population a group of scientists have enlarged the microsimulation model SESIM - originally developed at the Swedish Ministry of Finance - with modules that simulate health status, take up of sickness benefits, retirement,...

This paper examines the determinants of informal sanctions by a large number of experiments.

We revisit the apparent historical success of technical trading rules on daily prices of the Dow Jones index. First, we use the False Discovery Rate as a new approach to data snooping. The advantage of the FDR over existing methods is that it is more powerful and not restricted only to the best...

This paper examines latent risk factors in models for migration risk. We employ thestandard statistical framework for ordered categorical variables and induce dependencebetween migrations by means of latent risk factors. By assuming a Markov process forthe dynamics of the latent factors, the...

While the relationship between volatility and risk is central to much of thefinancial literature it has not been incorporated systematically into assessment ofsovereign debt sustainability. This paper attempts to fill this gap by studying how the probability distribution of sovereign debt to GDP...