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Çelik, Sinem Kılıç; Kose, M. Ayhan; Ohnsorge, Franziska - 2023

Potential growth - the rate of expansion an economy can sustain at full capacity and employment - is a critical driver of development progress. It is also a major input in the formulation of fiscal and monetary policies over the business cycle. This paper introduces the most comprehensive...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014540899

Potential growth prospects: Risks, rewards, and policies

Çelik, Sinem Kılıç; Kose, M. Ayhan; Ohnsorge, Franziska - 2023

Potential output growth around the world slowed over the past two decades. This slowdown is expected to continue in the remainder of the 2020s: global potential growth is projected to average 2.2 percent per year in 2022-30, 0.4 percentage point below its 2011-21 average. Emerging market and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014540945

Slowing growth: More than a rough patch

Kose, M. Ayhan; Ohnsorge, Franziska - 2023

Across the world, a structural growth slowdown is underway: at current trends, the global potential growth rate - the maximum rate at which an economy can grow without igniting inflation - is expected to fall to a three-decade low over the remainder of the 2020s. The slowdown could be even more...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014540975

Economic Uncertainty and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy

Aastveit, Knut Are; Natvik, Gisle James; Sola, Sergio - 2013

This paper explores if economic uncertainty alters the macroeconomic influence of monetary policy. We consider several measures of U.S. economic uncertainty, and estimate their interaction effects with monetary policy shocks as identified through structural vector autoregressions. We find that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012143829

Unemployment in the European Union: institutions, prices, and growth

Karanassou, Marika; Sala, Héctor; Snower, Dennis J. - 2003

This paper presents a reappraisal of unemployment movements in the European Union. Our analysis is based on the chain reaction theory of unemployment, which focuses on (a) the interaction among labor markets adjustment processes, (b) the interplay between these adjustment processes and the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010281023

Unemployment in the European Union: a dynamic reappraisal

Karanassou, Marika; Sala, Héctor; Snower, Dennis J. - 2002

This paper examines the movements in EU unemployment from two perspectives: a) the NRU/NAIRU perspective, in which unemployment movements are attributed largely to changes in the long-run equilibrium unemployment rate and (b) the chain-reaction perspective, in which unemployment movements are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010281027

News media vs. FRED-MD for macroeconomic forecasting

Ellingsen, Jon; Larsen, Vegard Høghaug; Thorsrud, Leif … - 2020

Using a unique dataset of 22.5 million news articles from the Dow Jones Newswires Archive, we perform an in depth real …, namely the FRED-MD dataset. Focusing on U.S. GDP, consumption and investment growth, our results suggest that the news data … contains information not captured by the hard economic indicators, and that the news-based data are particularly informative …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012661568

Discount shock, price-rent dynamics, and the business cycle

Miao, Jianjun; Wang, Pengfei; Zha, Tao - 2020

The price-rent ratio in commercial real estate is highly volatile, and its variation comoves with the business cycle. To account for these two facts, we develop a dynamic general equilibrium model that explicitly introduces a rental market and incorporates the liquidity constraint on an...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012389584

Rise and fall of Mexican Super Peso: Heterodox perspective versus orthodoxy

Montiel-Orozco, Laura Lisset - 2024

This working paper contrasts the neo-Keynesian and post-Keynesian theories of monetary policy for an open economy, highlighting the irrelevance of the orthodox theory and the explanatory capacity of heterodoxy for an emerging economy such as Mexico. It focuses on the role of the central bank and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015189339

Unusual shocks in our usual models

Ferroni, Filippo; Fisher, Jonas D. M.; Melosi, Leonardo - 2022

shock come with news about its propagation, allowing us to disentangle the role of beliefs about the future of the pandemic …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013479465