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Quantifying time-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil

Aastveit, Knut Are; Cross, Jamie - 2021

We propose a novel and numerically efficient quantification approach to forecast uncertainty of the real price of oil using a combination of probabilistic individual model forecasts. Our combination method extends earlier approaches that have been applied to oil price forecasting, by allowing...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012661575

A weekly structural VAR model of the US crude oil market

Valenti, Daniele; Bastianin, Andrea; Manera, Matteo - 2022

We present a weekly structural Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model of the US crude oil market. Exploiting weekly data we can explain short-run crude oil price dynamics, including those related with the COVID-19 pandemic and with the Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The model is set identified with...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013353581

The connectedness of Energy Transition Metals

Bastianin, Andrea; Casoli, Chiara; Galeotti, Marzio - 2023

positively correlated with proxies of economic activity, whereas volatility connectedness seems to be more related to global …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014305713

Is the Price Cap for Gas Useful? Evidence from European Countries

Ravazzolo, Francesco; Rossini, Luca - 2023

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, many countries have pledged to end or restrict their oil and gas imports to curtail Moscow's revenues and hinder its war effort. Thus, the European ministers agreed to trigger a cap on the gas price. To detect the importance of the price cap for gas, we...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014451714

How are oil supply shocks transmitted to the U.S. economy?

Geiger, Martin; Güntner, Jochen - 2019

We investigate how oil supply shocks are transmitted to U.S. economic activity, consumer prices, and interest rates. Using a structural VAR approach with a combination of sign and zero restrictions, we distinguish between supply and demand channels in the transmission of exogenous changes in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012140936

Productivity, energy prices, and the great moderation: A new link

Dhawan, Rajeev; Jeske, Karsten; Silos, Pedro - 2008

volatility of output and its components. Specifically, the change in the joint stochastic process accounts for close to 70 … percent of the moderation in output volatility. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010292361

Energy Dependency and Long-Run Growth

Novelli, Giacomo - 2022

showing that the energy price volatility negatively affects the long-run economic growth of countries with a low degree of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013470533

The Impact of China’s Electricity Deregulation on Coal and Power Industries: Two-stage Game Modeling Approach

Liu, HuiHui; Zhang, ZhongXiang; Chen, ZhanMing; Dou, DeSheng - 2018

The regulated price mechanism in China’s power industry has attracted much criticism because of its incapability to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011957009

Energy Price Reform in China

Zhang, ZhongXiang - 2018

consumers of energy. While the overall trend of China’s energy pricing reform since 1984 has been moving away from the prices …, petroleum products, natural gas, electricity and renewable power in China, and provides some analysis of these energy price … reforms, in order to have the market to play a decisive role in allocating resources and help China’s transition to a low …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011957010

Does China Fall into Poverty-Environment Traps? Evidence from Long-term Income Dynamics and Urban Air Pollution

Wu, Jian-Xin; He, Ling-Yun; Zhang, ZhongXiang - 2019

are the major characteristics in the long-run relationship between income and urban air pollution in China, which implies …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012146423