In a recent article Bai (Fixed-Effects Dynamic Panel Models, A Factor Analytical Method. Econometrica 81, 285-314, 2013a) proposes a new factor analytical method (FAM) for the estimation of fixed-effects dynamic panel data models, which has the unique and very useful property that it is...

In a recent study, Bai (Fixed-Effects Dynamic Panel Models, A Factor Analytical Method. Econometrica 81, 285-314, 2013a) proposes a new factor analytic (FA) method to the estimation of dynamic panel data models, which has the unique and very useful property that it is completely bias-free....

This paper provides empirical evidence on the dynamic effects of uncertainty on firm-level capital accumulation. A novelty in this paper is that the firm-level uncertainty indicator is motivated and derived from a theoretical model, the neoclassical investment model with time to build. This...

This paper addresses cointegration in small cross-sectional panel data models. In addition to dealing with cointegrating relationships within the cross-sectional dimension, the paper explicitly addresses the issue of cointegration between cross-sections. The approach is based upon a well-known...

We study scar formation and persistence after a house price bubble has burst using data on 3,089 US counties and county equivalents over the period 1980q1-2019q4. We date house price booms and busts for each county, and identify periods with explosive house price developments. Applying a sharp...

In the present paper, time series on industrial production growth of individual countries are used to investigate the following questions: (i) Is there a common growth cycle for the euro area countries? (ii) Did the synchronization change over time? (iii) Can we discriminate between a "European"...

The goal of this paper is to provide up-to-date worldwide evidence on the short-term relationship between credit changes and output changes. Standard correlation methods, stateof-the-art panel Granger causality tests, and panel regressions were applied on a maximum sample of 144 countries over...

This study investigates the cyclical character of fiscal policy in transition countries in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) in the period from 1995 to 2011, using system GMM as the preferred estimation method for the underlying sample and model specification. The study finds...

We assess the importance of residential investment in predicting economic recessions for an unbalanced panel of 12 OECD countries over the period 1960Q1-2014Q4. Our approach is to estimate various probit models with different leading indicators and evaluate their relative prediction accuracy...

The standard way today to obtain measures of inflationary expectations is to use questionnaires to ask a representative group of respondents about their beliefs of the future rate of inflation during the coming 12 months. This type of data on inflationary expectations as well as on inflationary...