We analyze the interaction between monetary policy in the US and the global economy proposing a new class of Bayesian global vector autoregressive models that accounts for time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility (TVP-SV-GVAR). We find that a contractionary US monetary policy shock...

I estimate the effect of lottery winnings on peers' debt accumulation using administrative data from Norway. I identify neighbors of lottery winners, and estimate an average debt response of 2.1 percent of the lottery prize among households that live up to ten houses from the winner. Analyzing...

We estimate the effects of the arrival of 2.5 million Syrian migrants in Turkey by the end of 2015 on the labor market outcomes of natives, using a difference-in-differences IV methodology. We show that relaxing the common-trend assumption of this methodology -unlike recent papers in the same...

This paper examines the effects of policy rate announcements on households' inflation expectations over the time period 2003-2015. The effect is estimated using a two-stage least squares regression model. The announced changes are instrumented by a monetary policy surprise variable obtained from...

We develop non-parametric instrumental variable estimation and inferential theory for econometric models with possibly endogenous regressors whose coefficients can vary over time either deterministically or stochastically, and the time-varying and uniform versions of the standard Hausman...

In the current paper, the finite-sample stability of various implementations of the KPSS test is studied. The implementations considered differ in how the so-called long-run variance is estimated under the null hypothesis. More specifically, the effects that the choice of kernel, the value of...

A regression model is considered where earnings are explained by schooling and ability. It is assumed that schooling is measured with error and that there are no data on ability. Regressing earnings on observed schooling then yields an estimate of the return to schooling that is subject to...

Consider an observed binary regressor D and an unobserved binary variable D*, both of which affect some other variable Y. This paper considers nonparametric identification and estimation of the effect of D on Y , conditioning on D* = 0. For example, suppose Y is a person's wage, the unobserved D...