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Forecasting China's economic growth and inflation

Higgins, Patrick; Zha, Tao; Zhong, Karen - 2016

(GDP) growth and consumer price index inflation. This paper fills this research gap by providing a replicable forecasting …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011776817

Formation of inflation expectations: Does macroeconomic and policy environment matter?

Gülşen, Eda; Kara, Hakan - 2020

This paper investigates the changing behavior of inflation expectations in response to the macroeconomic and policy … environment. Using a panel of professional forecasters covering thirteen years of inflation targeting period from Turkey, we … present evidence on the behavioral shifts in the inflation expectations associated with evolving macroeconomic and policy …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012628450

Can Households Predict where the Macroeconomy is Headed?

Kladivko, Kamil; Österholm, Pär - 2020

In this paper, we evaluate households' directional forecasts of inflation and the unemployment rate in Sweden. The … forecast where the unem-ployment is headed, but they fail in predicting the direction of future inflation. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012654465

Inflation uncertainty and disagreement in bond risk premia

D'Amico, Stefania; Orphanides, Athanasios - 2014

uncertainty differs importantly from measures of disagreement regarding inflation forecasts and other proxies, such as model … regime over the last 15 years. Once the role of inflation uncertainty is accounted for, disagreement regarding inflation …This paper examines the relation between variations in perceived inflation uncertainty and bond premia. Using the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011460661

Forecasting the volatility of energy transition metals

Bastianin, Andrea; Li, Xiao; Shamsudin, Luqman - 2025

The transition to a cleaner energy mix, essential for achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, will significantly increase demand for metals critical to renewable energy technologies. Energy Transition Metals (ETMs), including copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, and rare earth elements,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015210001

Combining Forecast Densities from VARs with Uncertain Instabilities

Jore, Anne Sofie; Mitchell, James; Vahey, Shaun P. - 2008

Clark and McCracken (2008) argue that combining real-time point forecasts from VARs of output, prices and interest rates improves point forecast accuracy in the presence of uncertain model instabilities. In this paper, we generalize their approach to consider forecast density combinations and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012143681

Combining Inflation Density Forecasts

Kascha, Christian; Ravazzolo, Francesco - 2008

In this paper, we empirically evaluate competing approaches for combining inflation density forecasts in terms of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012143702

Density Forecasts with Midas Models

Aastveit, Knut Are; Foroni, Claudia; Ravazzolo, Francesco - 2014

In this paper we derive a general parametric bootstrapping approach to compute density forecasts for various types of mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) regressions. We consider both classical and unrestricted MIDAS regressions with and without an autoregressive component. First, we compare the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012143848

Modelling Returns in US Housing Prices – You're the One for Me, Fat Tails

Kiss, Tamás; Nguyen, Hoang; Österholm, Pär - 2020

In this paper, we analyse the heavy-tailed behaviour in the dynamics of housing-price returns in the United States. We investigate the sources of heavy tails by estimating autoregressive models in which innovations can be subject to GARCH effects and/or non-Gaussianity. Using monthly data...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012654467

Quantile combination: An application to US GDP growth forecasts

Aastveit, Knut Are; ter Ellen, Saskia; Mantoan, Giulia - 2024

We propose an easy-to-implement framework for combining quantile forecasts, applied to forecasting GDP growth. Using quantile regressions, our combination scheme assigns weights to individual forecasts from different indicators based on quantile scores. Previous studies suggest distributional...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015433779